Published September 25, 2026 in Market Update

High rates are slowing the first rush, not stopping the market

By Josh Burnett

Real estate, Primary market

These numbers cover the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is the period. Read them that way.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% as of September 24, 2026. That is the number sitting on every buyer's shoulder right now. It slows the first rush. It does not stop it.

Think of it like a thermostat. Rates turned it down a few degrees. The house is still warm, just not as warm as last year. Buyers are still moving. They are just moving a little slower.

The market is still selling, just taking a breath

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,915 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That was up 6% from the same months of 2025. Sales are not falling. They are climbing.

More homes for sale is not bad news on its own. It means buyers have real choices. It means sellers have real competition. Those two things together are what a functioning market looks like.

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales nationally were up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of 2026. The Primary market, at up 6%, is running ahead of that pace.

The two-week window: still real, but narrower

I have told sellers for years: the first two weeks are everything. That is still true. But the window is a little harder to hit than it was twelve months ago.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 48.8% of homes in ZIP 28277 going under contract within two weeks of listing, in the three months ending July 31, 2026. Nearly half. That is not a slow market.

But that share was down 12.5 points from a year ago. That is the part worth sitting with. A 12.5-point drop is not nothing. It means more sellers are missing that window than before.

I know what it feels like to watch a number that should be moving, not move. The light bill before it gets cut off. You keep thinking something will shift. Sometimes it does. Sometimes the price was just wrong from day one.

How fast homes move, ZIP by ZIP

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked the share of homes going under contract within two weeks across every ZIP code in the Primary market, for the three months ending July 31, 2026. The spread is wide.

ZIP 28209 led the market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 52% of homes there going under contract within two weeks, up 5.6 points from a year ago. That ZIP is moving faster, not slower.

ZIP 28202 sat at the other end. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 0% of homes there going under contract within two weeks, down 33.3 points from a year ago. Median days on market there hit 104 days. That is a very different conversation than 28209.

Prices: a mixed picture, not a collapse

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. Some ZIP codes in this market beat that. Some did not.

ZIP 28203 saw the median sale price climb 24%, to $800,000, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 28227 was up 15.5%, to $465,000. Those are real gains.

ZIP 28206 saw the median fall 20.9%, to $370,000. ZIP 28202 fell 13.1%, to $367,000. Prices dipped in several ZIP codes. That is worth knowing before you pick a number.

Sellers are still getting close to asking price

Across ZIP codes, the average sale-to-list ratio stayed close to 99%. That means most sellers got nearly every dollar they asked for. Not every dollar, but close.

ZIP 28209 averaged 100.3% of list price, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Homes there sold above asking, on average. ZIP 28202 averaged 96.5%. That 3.8-point gap is small in percentage terms. In dollars on a $367,000 home, it is not.

Days on market: longer almost everywhere

The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed median days on market rising in most ZIP codes compared with a year ago. The biggest jump was in ZIP 28202, up 45 days, to a median of 104 days. ZIP 28208 was up 24 days, to 75 days.

ZIP 28209 moved the other way. Median days on market there fell 4 days, to 38 days. ZIP 28104 was also 2 days shorter. A few spots are actually faster than last year.

What this means for sellers

The two-week window is still the one that matters. In ZIP 28277, the Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 48.8% of homes going under contract that fast. That is nearly half the market moving quickly.

But that share fell 12.5 points from a year ago. The buyers are there. They are just pickier. A price that was fine twelve months ago may be the reason a home sits today.

Freddie Mac's 7.03% rate as of September 24, 2026 is real pressure on buyers. The National Association of Realtors reported that sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of U.S. home sales in August 2026, up from 42.6% a year earlier. Buyers know they have a little more room to ask.

One thing I keep saying: the ZIP code average tells you where the market is. Your street tells you where your home is. Those two numbers are not always the same. What does yours look like?

- Josh